Why Omicron Could Be The Last Variant Of Concern In The Covid 19 Pandemic?

As we all know, the Omicron variant was first detected in Botswana and South Africa in November 2021, and the Omicron variant increased around the world in just a few weeks, faster than any known coronavirus come before. While there's a lot scientists still don't understand about Omicron, this variant that has caused a surge in new cases could push some hospital systems to breaking point.

 

Scientists recognized Omicron for the first time thanks to a special combination of more than 50 mutations. Some of them were made by earlier variants such as Alpha and Beta, and earlier experiments demonstrated that they could allow a coronavirus to spread rapidly. Other mutations have been known to help the coronavirus evade the antibodies produced by the vaccine.

 Based on those mutations, coupled with a disturbing increase in Omicron cases in South Africa, the World Health Organization designated Omicron as a "worrisome variant" on November 26, the scene reported that the global risks posed by it were "very high". Since then, the variant has been identified in more than 110 countries. In early December, a California resident returning home from South Africa was identified as the first American infected with Omicron. By December 25, the Centers for Disease Control estimated that it accounted for 58% of all new infections in the United States. Omicron is rapidly rising to dominance in many parts of the world, unleashing the full potential that scientists recognized when it was first discovered.

 Although the Omicron variant is highly infectious, maximizing its "tools", the laws of biochemistry show that viruses cannot evolve indefinitely.

The question is, has Omicron evolved to its fullest extent?

 

Whether the Covid-19 virus has evolved is debatable, but like all life forms, they are still evolving. This fact has become increasingly apparent as new disturbing variations emerge every few months.

 Some of these variants are more likely to spread from person to person and become the most dominant when overtaking the slower-evolving versions of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

 This greater ability to spread is thought to be caused by mutations in the spike protein, which helps the virus attach more tightly to the ACE2 receptors. ACE2 are receptors on the surface of cells, where the virus attaches to enter the human body and begin to multiply.

 These mutations each allowed the Alpha variant and then the Delta variant to become the dominant variants globally. Scientists are predicting, the same could happen with the Omicron variant.

 However, viruses cannot improve their abilities indefinitely. The laws of biochemistry mean that the virus will eventually evolve into the spike protein to attach as strongly to ACE2 as possible. Once that is reached, the ability of the SARS-CoV-2 virus to spread between people will not be limited by how effectively the virus can attach to the outer layer of cells.

 However, other factors will limit the spread of the virus, such as how quickly the genome can multiply, how quickly the virus can enter cells via the TMPRSS2 protein, or how likely it is to be released in a person with the disease. In principle, all of these traits will eventually evolve to the highest level.

 So has the Omicron variant evolved to its fullest extent? There is no reason to assert that. Functional research activities, which look at what mutations of the SARS-CoV-2 virus need to spread more efficiently, have identified many mutations that improve the ability of the spike protein to bind to proteins human cells that the Omicron variant does not have.

 However, it is possible that Omicron is the variant that has reached its maximum capacity for spread. Perhaps Omicron will not have a more effective tool because it is limited in the capabilities of the genome. This is similar to the fact that zebras will not evolve to have extra eyes on the back of their heads to avoid predators. SARS-CoV-2 cannot select mutations to achieve the theoretical maximum level of evolution, because these mutations need to occur simultaneously and that is not possible.

 Even in the event that Omicron is the variant most likely to spread between humans, new variants will still emerge to deal with the human immune system.

 After contracting any virus, the immune system adapts by creating antibodies that attach to the virus to neutralize it, and the T cells destroy the infected cells. Antibodies are pieces of protein that attach to a virus molecule, and T cells recognize infected cells by the shape of the molecule. Therefore, SARS-CoV-2 can escape the immune system by mutating to change the shape of the molecule to avoid recognition by the immune system.

 That's why Omicron is so "successful" in infecting people who have had the disease or been vaccinated. In addition, mutations that make the spike protein bind more strongly to ACE2 also reduce the ability of the antibodies to attach to the virus and neutralize it.

 

The last worrying variant?

 

Pfizer data show that T cells respond to the Omicron variant similarly to previous variants. This coincides with the observation that Omicron causes a lower mortality rate in South Africa.

 What's important to us is that having the disease seems to protect people against severe symptoms and the risk of death.

 This point is probably the perspective of this virus. Even if the virus becomes more "professional" and maximizes all its tools, it will still be controlled and destroyed by the immune system. Mutations may improve transmission, but will not dramatically increase deaths.

 Viruses that achieve this maximum evolution would then probably mutate randomly, changing shape over time so that the immune system would not recognize them, thereby triggering waves of re-infection. At that time, we will probably have a Covid-19 season each winter similar to the current seasonal flu. Influenza viruses also have the same mutation pattern over time, also known as "antigen drift" that leads to reinfection.

 The new flu viruses each year are not necessarily stronger than the viruses of the previous year, they are simply different. The clearest evidence for the end of the SARS-CoV-2 virus is probably 229E, a corona virus that causes the common cold.

 So, Omicron won't be the last, but perhaps the last of concern. If we are lucky, amid the still unpredictable pandemic, SARS-CoV-2 will become an endemic virus that mutates slowly over time.

 This epidemic is likely to be very mild when those who have had the disease already have an immune system, helping to reduce the risk of hospitalization and death. Most people will get sick for the first time in childhood, which can happen before or after vaccination, and so subsequent reinfection is likely to go largely unnoticed.

Then we only need a small group of scientists to track the genetic changes of the SARS-CoV-2 virus over time and worrying variants will likely be a thing of the past, at least for the time being until the next virus breaks through the species barrier.