Why won't Putin invade Ukraine
In 2014, Russia annexed Crimea, a bold move to keep its
Black Sea Fleet at the port of Sevastopol in the face of Ukraine's new
government pivot to the West. Immediately after, the US and EU introduced
sanctions to damage the economy of this country, including 3 main categories:
1. Prohibition of providing oil and gas drilling technology.
2. Prohibition of providing credit to oil and gas companies
and the State Bank of Russia.
3. Travel restrictions for Russian citizens who are close to
President Putin and related to the annexation of Crimea.
When the sanctions were introduced, many European countries
protested and requested reconsideration, including France, Italy, Greece,
Hungary, Bulgaria, Cyprus, the Czech Republic and Slovakia. They all believe
that sanctions will not change Russia's position, but on the contrary will
cause economic damage to EU members when Putin responds with opposite sanctions
in the oil and gas sector. Their view was right, just one year after the two
sides sanctioned each other, the total loss of EU countries was 100 billion
euros and Russia's was 140 billion dollars, thereby showing that there is a
relationship between Russia and the EU today closely related economically.
Then in 2018, former President Donald Trump asked all 30
NATO members to commit to increasing defense spending by at least 2% of GDP.
However, more than 80% of European countries have refused, because they believe
that Russia is no longer the serious threat that the Americans claim. This
raises alarm bells with NATO, their alliance is becoming loosely more than
ever.
In 2021, President Putin has sent a large number of troops,
tanks, artillery and more to the border of Ukraine. He asked Ukraine not to be
allowed to join NATO and NATO not to deploy additional forces in countries such
as Poland and the Baltic states.
Before Butin's resolute action, what did NATO do? Only a few
members joined the US in calling for strong measures to cope. The two big
players in the organization, France and Germany, called for caution and
constructive dialogue. There is something quite interesting and turns into a
funny story. Amidst the tense situation, Germany sent aid to Ukraine 5,000
helmets to help them prepare for war. The Germans said it was an act of showing
they were on the side of Ukraine.
Most NATO members are not willing to support Ukraine, if
there is a real war, the US will again become the leader carrying the team.
Therefore, from 2014 to 2021 is the best opportunity for Russia if it wants to
invade Ukraine because within NATO as well as European countries no longer act
in unity as in the Cold War. With a smart head like Putin, it's easy to
recognize this opportunity. However, he ignored it. That suggests that the
mobilization of Ukrainian border troops may have a different purpose.
Now that good occasion is gone as NATO has become more
united and committed to support each other. They hypothesized that if Russia
attacks Ukraine, it means that Putin has the disease of the old empire that
wants to expand to the west, Europe should be proactive in its defense.
Recently, NATO has put a force of about 20,000 troops on high alert and ready
to respond in case of need.
In addition, the amount of weapons aid from the United
States to Ukraine is also increasing, in the past year alone, the value has
reached 650 million dollars. The EU also proposed severe economic sanctions
against Russia if it decided to go to war, including the removal from the Swift
financial system, system for transferring money from one bank to another around
the globe. This could hurt the Russian economy immediately and in the long
term.
Another pretty convincing reason to prove that Mr. Putin
does not want to invade Ukraine, going back in time to 2014 before Russia made
the decision to annex Crimea, Mr. Putin actively propagated to the public to
understand. The Russian government only follows the will and aspirations of the
people of the Crimean peninsula, not robs it from Ukraine.
Therefore, the majority of Russian people supported the
president's actions. Since then, the country's press has always praised the
friendly and friendly neighborliness with Ukraine. If they really want to
invade, the media will certainly have excuses before the government acts to
avoid shocking the people, as well as causing a negative reaction to President
Putin. In Russia he is a very popular leader, if compared with the level of
credibility with European leaders, he is far ahead.
Since Putin sent troops to the Ukrainian border, Russian
national TV channels such as Channel 1 or NTV often refer to this event as the
mobilization of troops, not to attack. Even news about Ukraine is not in the
top space when broadcasting news, but only in the sub-category. In addition,
President Putin is not a reckless person, the lessons of the annexation of
Crimea will make him consider. Russia has suffered severe economic consequences,
as GDP fell by 35% in just one year. Not to mention, if they waged an all-out
war, they would have to spend a lot of money. In the event that the West
actively helps Ukraine, a quick victory seems impossible.
Combining all the above reasons, we can temporarily conclude
that Russia will not launch an all-out war with Ukraine. However, one scenario
that many Western strategists conjecture is possible, is that Russia will wage
a small-scale, fast-paced, short-lived war with a deterrent victory. The
purpose is to put more pressure on Ukraine and the West to make concessions at
the negotiating table.
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